Year-to-date indicators for the trade sector are sending mixed
signals. Retail sales, which account for the lion's share of
trade activity, have increased considerably while wholesale
sales have registered a modest decline. Average monthly
employment in the trade industries, was 36,700 during the first
ten months of 2003, down from 38,600 during the same period in
2002.
|
|
Retail
|
Retail sales account for about 55% of consumer
spending, one of the drivers of economic growth this year.
Retail sales are expected to grow by 6.1% (3.9% after
inflation) this year to total $5.4 billion. This is higher
than the 3.2% (1.2% after inflation) growth which had been
previously forecast in March. Higher than expected retail
sales are due to two factors. Sales have been stronger than
anticipated because of stronger than expected employment and
income growth, coupled with low interest rates. As well,
higher than anticipated price increases, particularly energy
prices, have boosted the value of some categories of retail
sales (e.g., service station sales). |
| Real Retail Trade Per Capita
|
|
 |
| Statistics Canada;
Department of Finance |
|
|
|
|
Retail sales
have grown considerably over the past five years and
have made a substantial contribution to economic growth.
On a per capita basis, real retail sales expanded by
6.3% per year between 1997 and 2002 in comparison with
2.3% per year for Canada. Much of the growth was
supported by increased personal disposable income,
consumer confidence and rising levels of consumer debt.
Growth in retail trade is expected to continue over the
next several years, albeit at a more moderate pace.
While continued income growth is expected to encourage
higher levels of retail sales over the near term,
increased household debt may constrain future growth.
|
Wholesale
|
Wholesale trade declined
by 1.4% during the first eight months of 2003 to total
$1.71 billion. The decrease in sales was concentrated in
the first half of 2003 when wholesale trade was down
3.8%. Sales rebounded in July and August with growth of
3.8% and 4.8% respectively.
While the wholesale sector is an important supplier to
retailers in the province, its customer base is not
confined to the retail sector. Wholesalers also supply
intermediate goods to other sectors of the economy
including the manufacturing, construction and primary
resource sectors as well as service sector industries.
Wholesale activity has been more volatile than retail
over the last five years (possibly a reflection of major
project procurement activity), but overall sales have
risen from $2.13 billion in 1997 to $2.65 billion in
2002. Wholesale sales in 2003 are expected to be on par
with last year.
|
| For periodic updates on retail
sales visit: |
|
|
|
|
|
