Historical Perspective |
Labour markets have performed well over the last five years,
recovering losses incurred during the first half of the 1990s.
The collapse of the groundfish fisheries, government spending
restraint, and changes to the E.I. program precipitated
significant economic adjustment in the 1990s. Average
employment dropped from 207,400 in 1990 to a low of 187,000 in
1996 (see Chart). Since 1997, annual average employment has
grown by 2.4% per year and in 2002 reached 213,900, about
6,500 above the peak recorded in 1990.
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| Average Employment and Number of
People Who Reported Employment Income
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| Source: Labour Force Survey and Tax Filer Data |
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| While average
employment has surpassed previous peak levels, other data
indicates the total number of people who worked at some point
during the year has not yet reached the levels recorded in
1990. The number of people who reported employment income (tax
filer data) was 269,540 in 2001 (latest year available), below
the number reported in 1990 (279,460). This apparent
contradiction is explained by the fact that many part year or
seasonal jobs have been replaced by
full-year employment. For example, since 1996, average
full-year employment has increased by 22.0%, while
average part-year employment has decreased by 4.0%.
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2003
Performance
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Labour
markets continue to improve in 2003. Employment is
expected to increase by 2.2% for the year to total
218,500 person years. This is slightly better than the
1.8% growth forecast in March. The labour force
participation rate has also been increasing during the
year, expanding the size of the labour force. The labour
force is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2003 to total
262,600. In the March forecast, the unemployment rate
was expected to drop from 16.9% in 2002 to 16.1% this
year. However, stronger than expected labour force
growth will prevent any significant drop in the
unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is now expected
to average 16.8%, only slightly lower than last year.
On an industry basis, employment growth this year has
been confined to the services sector, which is up by
3.9% in the first ten months. Gains have been recorded
in many service industries including health care and
social assistance; accommodation and food services; and
transportation and warehousing. Goods sector employment
was down 4.5% compared to the same period in 2002; due
mainly to losses in manufacturing, in particular fish
processing.
Regionally, positive employment growth during the first
nine months occurred in the St. John's CMA (2.5%), the
West Coast-Northern Peninsula-Labrador Region (4.3%),
and Central Newfoundland-Northeast Coast Region (2.5%).
Employment losses were experienced on the Avalon
Peninsula outside the St. John's CMA (-1.7%) and in the
South Coast-Burin Peninsula Region (-2.4%).
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