POPPS stands for "Population Projection System." The system is designed to project the population by age and sex for Newfoundland and Labrador and various sub-provincial regions, including economic zones.

The system uses information/assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to determine population for each year of the projection. Consultations with various stakeholders throughout regions of the Province were also used in the preparation of the projections.

POPPS is housed at the Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance.

Fertility - the total fertility rate gradually trends up from a rate of 1.3 in 2007 to 1.46 in 2022 as economic conditions in the Province continue to improve.

Mortality - life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 2.7 years between 2007 and 2022. Female life expectancy increases by 2.4 years over the same period.

Migration - net migration from the Province is assumed to be roughly zero in 2008. Significant net in-migration is assumed to occur in 2009, 2010, and 2011 as several major projects are developed. Net out-migration resumes between 2012 and 2014 as major project construction activity ends. Net in-migration resumes after 2015 as labour market conditions continue to tighten. The in-migration is necessary to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire.

Fertility - the total fertility rate remains stable near 1.30 over the entire projection period.

Mortality - life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends in age specific mortality rates. Male life expectancy increases by 2.4 years between 2007 and 2022. Female life expectancy increases by 2.3 years over the same period.

Migration - net out-migration from the Province is roughly 1,200 and 400 respectively for the next two years, but declines to near zero in 2010 and 2011 as construction activity on the Voisey's Bay and Hebron projects peak. Thereafter, net-migration remains in the -600 to -1,500 range per year for the next six years. Beginning in 2017, net out-migration trends to zero and net in-migration begins to occur late in the projection period as economic and labour market conditions continue to improve. The in-migration is necessary to fill job openings that will be created as baby boomers retire.

Fertility - the total fertility rate continues to decline in line with recent trends, from a rate of 1.3 in 2007 to 1.14 in 2022.

Mortality - life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.8 years between 2007 and 2022. Female life expectancy increases by 1.8 years over the same period.

Migration - with fewer jobs available in the Province under this scenario, net out-migration from the Province averages roughly 1,750 per year for the next two years and thereafter remains in the 800 to 2,000 per year range over most of the projection period as strong labour markets in Central and Western Canada continue to attract young workers from other areas of the country.