Population Projections - Assumptions
Updated January 2011
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POPPS stands for "Population Projection System." The system is designed to project the population by age and sex for Newfoundland and Labrador and various sub-provincial regions, including economic zones.
The system uses information/assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to produce three different population projections for Newfoundland and Labrador. Consultations with various stakeholders throughout regions of the Province were also used in the preparation of the projections.
POPPS is housed at the Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance.
- High Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility - The total fertility rate gradually trends up from a rate of 1.47 in 2010 to 1.63 in 2025 as economic conditions in the Province continue to improve.
- Mortality - Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 2.4 years between 2010 and 2025. Female life expectancy increases by 2.4 years over the same period.
- Migration - After turning positive in 2009, significant net in-migration is assumed to occur from 2010 to 2015 as several major projects, including the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, and the Lower Churchill are developed. Net out-migration is assumed in 2016 and 2017 as construction projects are completed. Net in-migration resumes in 2018 and averages approximately 1,900 per year between 2018 and 2025 as migrants are required to fill new jobs and replace baby boomers as they retire.
- Medium Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility - The total fertility rate remains stable near 1.46 over the entire projection period.
- Mortality - Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends in age-specific mortality rates. Male life expectancy increases by 2.1 years between 2010 and 2025. Female life expectancy also increases by 2.0 years over the same period.
- Migration - After turning positive in 2009, net in-migration is assumed to continue through to 2015 due to increased levels of employment and construction activity related to the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, and the Lower Churchill. Net out-migration is assumed to return in 2016 and 2017 as construction activity related to the Hebron project ends. Net in-migration is expected to return in 2018 and gradually increase thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire.
- Low Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility - The total fertility rate declines from a rate of 1.44 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2025.
- Mortality - Life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.8 years between 2010 and 2025. Female life expectancy increases by 1.8 years over the same period.
- Migration - Modest net in-migration is assumed through 2017 due to employment from construction activity related to the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, and the Lower Churchill. Net out-migration is assumed in 2018 as major projects are completed. Modest net in-migration is expected to return in 2019 and gradually increase thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire.