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Historically, the impact of out migration on population growth has been more than offset by a high birth rate. In the 1990s, however, fewer births combined with a sharp increase in out migration resulted in large population declines. Between 1992 and 2002, the population fell by about 60,700. However, losses through out migration have declined over the last five years in concert with economic improvements. |
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| Change in Total
Population
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| Newfoundland and Labrador, 1972 to 2018p
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Click for larger view
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p - projection
Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division |
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| Components of Population Change |
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| Population July 1, 2002 |
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519,270 |
| Births |
4,573 |
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| Deaths |
4,350 |
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| Natural Change |
223 |
223 |
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| In-Migration |
12,280 |
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| Out-Migration |
12,203 |
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| Net-Migration |
77 |
77 |
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| Population July 1, 2003 |
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519,570 |
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| Change 2002 to 2003 |
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300 |
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| Statistics Canada |
| Potential Labour Force Entrants vs. Retirees
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| Newfoundland and Labrador, 1972 to 2018p
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Click for larger view
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p - projection
Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division |
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The province's population on July 1, 2003 was 519,570, a gain of 300 over 2002, the first increase in more than a decade. The gain was due to natural population change of 223 and positive net migration of 77. This net migration contrasts with the previous five years when an average negative net migration of 7,049 was recorded. Last
year's positive performance was due to solid economic growth locally and temporary economic weakness in other parts of the country which dampened job prospects in those regions. |
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Population is expected to decline modestly over the coming years due to natural population losses and net out migration. Rapid aging, one of the
province's most important demographic challenges, is also expected to
continue—median age is expected to rise from 39.3 years in 2003 to 47 years in 2018. Public sector challenges include changing demands for health care due to an aging population and providing education services to far fewer students over less densely populated areas.
Labour markets will also change as demand for workers overtakes supply. Fewer new entrants into the labour market combined with large numbers retiring could result in labour shortages. This would be in contrast to the past when new entrants greatly exceeded new jobs available through retirements and job growth, forcing young people to leave the province in search of employment. Improved planning, and the communication of labour market conditions and expectations, could go a long way to alleviate potential shortages. |
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